Professor Sir John Beddington is the Chief Scientific Adviser to the British government. On March 19, 2009, he told the Sustainable Development UK 09 Conference that a “perfect storm” is brewing that could cause chaos in the not-too-distant future.
Overpopulation Puts Stress on Resources
The World Population Clock now shows there are more than 6.7 billion people in the world, and this is growing by 6.5 million people a month. This is just too much for the carrying capacity of the planet says Beddington, particularly with regard to energy, water, and food.
In a March 18, 2009 interview with the Science Correspondent of The Guardian, Ian Sample, Prof. Beddington is quoted as saying, “If we don’t address this, we can expect major destabilization, an increase in rioting, and potentially significant problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid food and water shortages.” He added that he sees the year 2030 as the point at which things will start to fall apart badly.
Increased Resource Production Needed
The Guardian article, “World Faces ‘Perfect Storm’ of Problems by 2030, Chief Scientist…warn[s],” says that “according to Beddington, global food reserves are so low – at 14% of annual consumption – a major drought or flood could see prices rapidly escalate again. The majority of the food reserve is grain that is in transit between shipping ports, he said.” Added to that, the world needs to find 50% more energy and 30% more water.
Adverse Effects of Climate Change
Now, factor in climate change. In a September 2007 publication “Global Warming and Agriculture,” the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that global agriculture potential could fall by as much as 20% as a result of global warming, if nothing is done by the 2080s.
Economist William Cline, is a senior fellow with the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C. He presented a paper to the FAO in which he warned that some areas of the world will suffer more than others. Food production losses would be “Something like 30 to 40% in India, and something like 20% or more in Africa and Latin America…” However, he added that some parts of the world might see food production increases, but these would not offset the declines.
Better Technology Might Help Diminish Disaster
Meanwhile, back at the Sustainable Development UK 09 Conference, Sir John Beddington was talking about how to fix the shortages problems. He said major research efforts are needed to develop renewable energy, raise crop yields, and make better use of existing water supplies.
He pointed out that China is facing severe water shortages. As a result, 59 new reservoirs have been built to trap glacial meltwater, which can then be released into the regular water supply when needed.
Millennium Development Goals
In September 2000, the leaders of 191 countries agreed to launch a new attack on global poverty. The United Nations’ Millennium Declaration included promises to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, improve access to clean water, promote sustainability, and generally work to better the lives of the world’s most vulnerable people.
Targets were to met by 2015, but in the context of the current economic mess, they look increasingly out of reach. Without a redoubled development effort the gloomy predictions of Sir John Beddington appear more likely to become reality than the Millennium Development Goals.
Rupert Taylor - Rupert Taylor is the editor of a magazine that provides background to current events.
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